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Integrated Transport Model Thuringia – Prognosis (Public Transport) North Thuringia

Since 2005, the Transport and Spatial Planning Institute of the University of Applied Sciences has been pursuing the goal of generating an integrated transport model for the Free State of Thuringia.

The sub-model for public transport (PT) for Thuringia is being developed in cooperation with NVS (the Public Transport Service Association Thuringia mbH). The central aim is to match demand data with PT supply and to assess reactions of demand to changed supply. Basis for the PT-model is the physical railway and road network as well as the division of transport districts which also underlies the MIT (motorised individual transport) sub-model. The MIT and the PT sub-models will eventually be joined to build an integrated transport model, so that both supply and demand can be designed considering various transport systems.

In order to arrange SPNV (railway PT) orders and develop a persistent concept for PT in Thuringia, the assessment of the current and the prospective situation is absolutely necessary. Especially in order to reconstruct current and estimate future passenger numbers, wide-ranging data concerning transportation supply, demand and structure must be collected and maintained. With the help of this data, prospective reactions of passengers’ demand can be calculated in advance. This provides a possibility to, among others, make predictions concerning future transport supply and the development of transportation costs.

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